Tristan H. co*ckcroft
Jul 2, 2024, 04:00 PM ET
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Has regression arrived for Rodon?
New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon has fallen into quite a funk of late.
Through June 10, the date of his 14th start of the season, Rodon was the No. 14 starting pitcher in fantasy points (192), with a tied-for-fifth-best 10 quality starts and tied-for-second-best nine wins. He was in the midst of a streak of seven quality starts.
In three turns since, Rodon has surrendered a combined 21 runs (20 earned) on 28 hits, five of them home runs, nearly doubling each of his season totals in those categories. Among the concerns raised during that stretch was opponents selling out for his fastball, something Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake recently said was being addressed during Rodon's between-outings preparation. The numbers speak volumes:
Rodon's four-seam fastball, first 14 starts: .230 BAA, .442 SLG, 9 HR, 49.6 HH%
Rodon's four-seam fastball, past three starts: .480 BAA, 1.080 SLG, 4 HR, 80.0 HH%
In Rodon's defense, those three starts represented a somewhat rough stretch of his schedule, as the opposing Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays all project on paper as top-10 offenses against left-handed pitching, and his June 21 start against those Braves came in extreme heat that probably had an adverse effect on his grip. Nevertheless, his season-to-date performance, even before that stretch, had been lacking and hinted he might struggle against tougher opponents.
For example, while Rodon's ERA was 2.93 through his first 14 starts, his 4.11 FIP belied the performance, while his 22.8% strikeout rate was well beneath his 33.9% number from his spectacular 2021-22 campaigns combined. Against the five worst offenses for the season (using runs per game), he has a 1.89 ERA in three starts, while against the 25 other teams, his ERA for the season is 5.06. There appear to be greater concerns for Rodon than simply improving the command of his fastball.
A home matchup against the Reds falls in the middle of that scale, as Yankee Stadium's cozy confines cause concern for a pitcher who has already allowed more home runs (16) this season than in any other year besides 2016 (23), while the Reds have some lumber in their lineup, underscored by scoring in double-digits seven times in 2024 (tied for seventh-most). The projections support a rebound for Rodon, though his skills-based metrics say he's one from whom to carefully pick matchups going forward.
Everything else you need to know for Wednesday
After missing half the season recovering from an elbow injury suffered in March, Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams is set to make his 2024 debut in what is a dream matchup against the light-hitting Chicago White Sox. Williams' minor league rehabilitation stint was lengthy -- he was activated Sunday after his rehab window expired -- but he finished on a high note, with back-to-back solid outings for Double-A Akron (June 21) and Triple-A Columbus (June 27). His raw metrics in the latter, per Statcast, were comparable to those from his 2023 rookie season, highlighted by his 95.9-mph average four-seam fastball velocity and 40% whiff rate against his curveball, with the one shift being greater reliance upon a cutter than the slider that was responsible for 24 of his 81 K's in 2023 (the change perhaps being a mere pitch-classification matter). Williams also threw 82 pitches in his most recent outing, a signal that he could be close to a full workload for this matchup against by far the majors' worst offense. It's a matchup well worth streaming (Williams is available in more than 80% of ESPN leagues), as well as for future scouting.
Davis Daniel dazzled in his first career big-league start for the Los Angeles Angels, shutting out the Detroit Tigers over eight innings on Saturday. Most notably, he exhibited a brilliant changeup, responsible for four of his eight strikeouts. That bodes well for his next outing, another plus matchup on the road against the Oakland Athletics, a team that has by far the majors' worst whiff rate against that particular pitch (38% of their swings against them). Daniel remains a worthy streamer and is available in more than 90% of ESPN leagues.
The Milwaukee Brewers get the benefit of hitting-friendly matchups at Colorado's Coors Field to begin this week, and their Wednesday matchup against Colorado Rockies right-hander Dakota Hudson might well be their most favorable in the series. The Brewers possess one of the game's widest platoon splits favoring success against right-handed pitching, while Hudson has afforded .295/.394/.477 rates to lefty hitters. Brice Turang, a .293/.352/.431 hitter against righties who typically leads off against that side, is well worth plugging into your fantasy lineups, while Garrett Mitchell, a lifetime .277/.353/.437 hitter against righties who returned to action on Monday, could sneak in a start and be a worthwhile plug-in.
The Baltimore Orioles haven't yet announced the identity of their Wednesday starter, with Corbin Burnes, fresh off the paternity list, the most likely candidate, though Dean Kremer is also set to return from the injured list to fill either that start or Thursday's. Regardless of the pitcher picked, Burnes and Kremer face a favorable matchup on the road against the Seattle Mariners, whose 27.5% strikeout rate in June was the majors' worst and who play in a pitching-friendly environment.
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Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
Rhys Hoskins (MIL, 1B -- 30%) at Dakota Hudson
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 8%) vs. Colin Rea
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 33%) vs. Rea
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 47%) vs. Miles Mikolas
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 10%) vs. Rea
Nolan Jones (COL, LF -- 41%) vs. Rea
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 3%) vs. Rea
Jackson Chourio (MIL, CF -- 26%) at Hudson
Alec Burleson (STL, LF -- 32%) at Jared Jones
Michael Toglia (COL, 1B -- 3%) vs. Rea
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday
Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) vs. Corbin Burnes
Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C -- 52%) vs. Jack Flaherty
Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B -- 88%) at Logan Gilbert
Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 61%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 56%) vs. Wheeler
Cedric Mullins (BAL, CF -- 60%) at Gilbert
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, 2B -- 94%) at Jon Gray
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 52%) at Gilbert
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 50%) at Yusei Kikuchi
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 99%) at Carlos Rodon
