Colorado's gas prices surged in the past week — they're up 17 cents per gallon on average in Fort Collins from a week ago after taking a dip the week prior.
But is that a sign of things to come?
Fort Collins' average price per gallon for regular gas is $3.29 as of Monday, according to GasBuddy.com, which tracks prices from 119 stations in Fort Collins. Statewide, the average is $3.32.
That's up from a low of $2.57 at the end of January, and prices have been rising ever since.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the price increases every spring as refineries conduct maintenance that slows production and then transitions to making summer blends. Prices usually peak in April or May, he said, and over the course of the summer move lower as production increases.
Going forward across the nation the next few months, he expects prices to "stay far under record levels" and trend lower as we get closer to July 4.
"While the Middle East, hurricane season, refinery maintenance and any other unexpected disruptions or weather remain wildcards, this summer is shaping up to be mostly favorable for drivers hitting the road," De Haan said.
But there's another factor Coloradans should be aware of: Reformulated gas is arriving now.
Will reformulated gas raise prices in Colorado?
Starting June 1, gas stations in nine Front Range counties, including Larimer, will be required to sell this less polluting type of gas, which is more expensive.
That's because those counties are located in an area deemed in 2022 to be in "severe" violation of ozone air quality standards by the Environmental Protection Agency. The nonattainment area applies to parts or all of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Jefferson, Weld and Larimer counties.
That designation triggered a requirement to sell federally approved cleaner fuel during the summer ozone season, starting this year.
So as of May 1, reformulated gas was required at gasoline refineries and terminals, which means it's rolling out to gas stations now.
"RFG will be making its way to the pump during the month of May and may be sold at some stations before the June 1 deadline depending on their individual supply needs," Taylor Gillespie, public affairs director with Region 8 of the EPA, told the Coloradoan.
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So how much will it increase gas prices? The answer is vastly different depending on who you ask — 3 cents per gallon all the way up to 60 cents per gallon with even higher spikes.
Gov. Jared Polis, in a letter to the EPA asking the agency to grant Colorado a waiver for the requirements, said prices could be expected to rise 60 cents per gallon or more.
His April 4 letter said the Gulf Coast, a "highly competitive region with little supply constraint," sees a premium of 10 cents per gallon for reformulated gas, and so Colorado can expect at least that much of an increase.
But he also said a state-commissioned study by Energy Analysts International Inc. said the most likely scenario in Colorado is a 60-cent price increase, with spikes up to $1 more.
The letter says Colorado's existing supply networks are insufficient and distributors will have to take extraordinary measures to meet demand.
Colorado is geographically isolated from major Gulf Coast refineries and separated from the national distribution network, he said, and has insufficient in-state refining capacity, so it relies on out-of-state fuel providers who can leave the market at any time.
But the EPA's Gillespie, in an email to the Coloradoan on Sunday, said the data assessment the agency uses estimates the potential cost increase is 3 to 5 cents per gallon.
"Fuel suppliers to the (Denver Metro/North Front Range) market have made the necessary preparations following years of lead time to deliver a volume of RFG in a cost-effective way that is consistent with historic market demand," she said.
De Haan said current observations show the new gas is costing 3 cents more per gallon in the Denver area, a smaller price difference than expected. The Chicago area is seeing a price difference of 25 to 30 cents per gallon.
"I can't fully explain to you why," he said. "That would indicate to me it's not very hard for them to produce this with other refineries in the region."
He said usually the switchover to reformulated gas happens far in anticipation of the deadline because operators don't like the idea of moving product through their pipeline that can't be sold.
That means the gas is already in circulation, he said.
"There's nothing motorists need to worry about," De Haan said. "They're actually pumping, in most instances, this reformulated blend already," depending on if they're in the nonattainment zone, he said.
However, he said one thing to worry about is a refinery outage, which could create a bigger price difference between reformulated and conventional gas.
He cited the winter 2022 fire that caused the Commerce City Suncor refinery to shut down.
"Then you saw how reliant you are on the refinery," De Haan said.
That refinery provides 38% of the gas to the Denver and Front Range market, according to Polis' letter.
Gillespie said the increased cost of reformulated will be somewhat offset by the better gas mileage cars will get using summer blend fuel.
"This increased fuel efficiency also results in less trucks on the road to refuel the gas at the gas station. Increased fuel efficiency and longer run times on gas powered equipment will result in consumers having to fill up less at the pump."
